Understanding the challenges and implications of El Niño - Webinar slides
This webinar - organized by the CDE Network on 27 August 2026 - brought together experts from MeteoSwiss, the World Meteorological Organization, SDC regional hubs and partner organisations to explore the evolving strong El Niño situation and its implications for humanitarian preparedness and anticipatory action. The slides are now available.
Event summary
On 27 August 2026, the webinar Understanding the challenges and implications of El Niño brought together experts from MeteoSwiss, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), SDC regional hubs and partner organisations to explore the evolving strong El Niño situation and its implications for humanitarian preparedness and anticipatory action.
The webinar began by explaining the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including how weakened trade winds lead to warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and influence weather patterns well beyond the region. While seasonal prediction is possible, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing, location and severity of impacts. The current forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are strengthening and expected to peak towards the end of 2026, resulting in an exceptionally strong El Niño. Combined with long-term climate warming, this is expected to increase the likelihood and severity of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extremes. The coming months are very likely going to exceed all past records on global temperature and thereby influence the political discussion on climate change.
A central message was that there is an opportunity to prepare before impacts materialise. The WMO Coordination Mechanism for humanitarians (WCM) provides tailored and trusted weather and climate information to humanitarian actors, helping translate forecasts into situational awareness and early action. Participants were encouraged to continuously monitor evolving forecasts and combine global information with national and regional expertise.
Regional examples illustrated how this can be put into practice. In Latin America and the Caribbean, preparedness efforts are advancing, but gaps remain between forecasts, decision triggers, financing and local delivery. In Southeast Asia, SDC is strengthening monitoring, project-level risk assessment, rapid-response preparedness and anticipatory funding. In South Asia (India), a slightly weakened monsoon season should not let us overlook the risks of droughts and mountain hazards. Examples from East Africa highlighted the importance of adapting agricultural decisions to changing rainfall forecasts and using flexible project resources to respond to crises.
The webinar concluded with a clear call to prepare, monitor, update and translate forecasts into early action. El Niño should be understood not as a single hazard, but as a risk multiplier with cascading consequences for food security, livelihoods, water, health, energy, transport and supply chains. Acting early, while regularly reassessing the situation, can help reduce these impacts and strengthen resilience.